Ranking first-round QBs of past five NFL drafts vs. 2024 prospects
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWe've already heard a lot about the 2024 NFL draft's talented quarterback duo at the top of the class: USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye. They are both in serious contention to go No. 1 overall next April, and Williams is getting "generational talent" buzz before the 2023 college football season even kicks off. But how do they stack up as prospects against other top-tier signal-callers?
To get a sense of the best quarterback prospects of the past five years, we stacked the 16 passers who were taken in Round 1 over 2019-2023. That conversation covers the likes of Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Kyler Murray. Then we dropped Williams and Maye -- the only two first-round graded QBs in my evaluations right now -- into the mix and ranked them against those recent Day 1 selections.
We polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and pre-draft grades were the only consideration here. What each quarterback has done as a pro isn't factored in at all, and over- or underperforming in the NFL relative to draft stock doesn't matter. We're just piling all 18 quarterbacks together as though they were all in the same draft class. So who is No. 1 on the list as the top quarterback prospect going back to 2019? You might be surprised ...
11. Trey Lance (2021)
Drafted: No. 3, San Francisco 49ersThe 6-foot-4, 224-pound Lance needed to start just 17 games at FCS-level North Dakota State -- including one single game in his final season -- to convince Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan to trade up the board to select him at No. 3 overall. He wowed scouts with upside that many compared to Mahomes and Josh Allen thanks to Lance's ability to torch defenses with his running and field vision.
Lance's NFL career has yet to get going because of injury and the rise of Brock Purdy, but the story is not completely written on him just yet. At only 23 years old, Lance has a lot of football ahead of him.
12. Anthony Richardson (2023)
Drafted: No. 4, Indianapolis ColtsRichardson perfectly personifies the modern quarterback in terms of what teams want: big, strong and fast, with an arm that can easily hit 75 yards when given room to operate. But he started just 13 games in college and had fewer than 300 pass attempts in a Florida offense that never seemed on track after a coaching change. Richardson also completed just 54.7% of his passes and threw 24 touchdowns to 15 interceptions in college. So while there was a ton of upside when the Colts took him at No. 4 in April, there was also a lot of risk.
Richardson would be atop a list of the most talented quarterback prospects of the past five years when it comes to physical traits and potential. He has a huge arm and ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. But as a prospect, he had his detractors because of the lack of experience and accuracy concerns.
13. Justin Fields (2021)
Drafted: No. 11, Chicago BearsWhen Fields was entering the draft, there were some scouts and evaluators who saw him equal to Lawrence, much like he was when the two were coming out of high school. But others believed Fields was propped up by the scheme and talent around him at Ohio State. That's why the two-time Heisman finalist who went 20-2 and threw for 67 touchdown passes to nine interceptions fell to No. 11 overall in a quarterback-driven league.
"The concerns about Fields coming out were that he couldn't process the entire field fast enough or throw guys open. The jury is out on that part of his game still, but there's no denying he's becoming a much greater running threat than anyone could have imagined," an NFC area scout said.
Fields had a tough rookie year but threw 17 touchdown passes and ran for over 1,000 yards last season. However, he also took 55 sacks in 2022 and has completed just 59.7% of his passes over two years.
14. Mac Jones (2021)
Drafted: No. 15, New England PatriotsJones, the fifth quarterback drafted in the 2021 class, has had an up-and-down career thus far, but coming out of Alabama, he was a highly regarded pocket passer with limited upside but a safe floor. He completed 77.4% of his throws during his final year with the Crimson Tide, throwing 41 TD passes to four interceptions.
15. Daniel Jones (2019)
Drafted: No. 6, New York GiantsIn the NFL, Jones has become a better version of his college tape under coach Brian Daboll while showcasing a dual-threat ability he flashed in college. But before the 2019 draft, many evaluators pointed to turnover woes. He had 29 interceptions and 13 lost fumbles over three seasons at Duke. That followed him into the pros, where he threw 22 interceptions and lost 17 fumbles in his first two years.
"I didn't see it [with Jones], but we knew a team would draft him way too early," one scout said.
Daboll helped turn Jones' game around, and the QB led New York to a playoff win last season after he finished tied for sixth in Total QBR (60.8). The Giants recently signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract that proves the team's commitment to him.
16. Dwayne Haskins (2019)
Drafted: No. 15, Washington CommandersA one-year starter at Ohio State, Haskins won 13 of his 14 starts while accumulating 4,831 passing yards and 50 touchdown throws en route to numerous postseason awards. He was knocked in pre-draft conversations for his lack of experience, though.
"I loved Haskins," one area scout said, "and if he had gone somewhere other than Washington to start out, I think he would have had a better shot at success. There, they needed a savior, and he needed a supporting cast."
Haskins spent two years in Washington and one year in Pittsburgh (12 career TD passes) before he died in April 2022.
17. Jordan Love (2020)
Drafted: No. 26, Green Bay PackersA 2.5-year starter in college, Love went from potential top-five pick as a sophomore to a fringe first-rounder following a coaching change before his junior season. The strong-armed Love would leave Utah State with 60 passing scores and nine rushing touchdowns. Scouts really liked his arm strength but were concerned about his touch and timing.
"He was one of those dudes I hoped wouldn't have to play right away, because what he was asked to do in college was in no way NFL stuff," one scout said.
Love was a work in progress when he entered the NFL and has had three seasons to sit, learn and improve without being under pressure to play immediately. Now he'll replace a legend in Aaron Rodgers as the Packers' starting quarterback with just 83 career passes under his belt.
18. Kenny Pickett (2022)
Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers"In any other draft, this dude is not a first-rounder," said one scout who covered Pickett's time in college. "No way."
But another argued that "first-rounders are first-rounders, and he had toughness, mobility, accuracy and leadership skills that earned him that grade."
As you can see, Pickett was and remains polarizing when asking evaluators to grade his game. He was the only quarterback taken in the first round of a weak 2022 class for the position, and the only one drafted in the first 73 picks. Pickett did throw 42 touchdown passes during his final year at Pitt, but he also lacked arm strength. In his rookie year, he completed just 63% of his throws and threw nine interceptions over 13 games. Heading into his second season with the Steelers, he has a chance to prove doubters wrong.
